AFP - The official unemployment rate in the United States fell to 9% in January, its lowest level since April 2009, despite increased hiring whose mediocre testified Friday the government's monthly report on employment.
A thorough review of data from the Labor Department suggest that still leaves the rally on the employment front is not as good as it seems and that the slowdown in hiring is less serious than it seems.
The figures appear in fact disturbed by bad winter weather that raged in several regions and a change in the sample population used to calculate the unemployment rate.
"In short, none of these figures are reliable," said Ian Shepherdson economist, the research institute HFE.
We must therefore await the numbers and revisions will be published in early March or early April to get a clearer view of the situation.
The White House has also called for "not conclude too much from a single monthly report," even if economic growth strengthens.
Nigel Gault, the firm IHS Global Insight, January figures conceal "an underlying improvement in the labor market buried under snow and ice."
Compared to December, unemployment fell 0.4 percentage points formally, while the median forecast of analysts gave a recovery rate at 9.5%.
The report, however, shows a modest increase in the proportion of active employees, 0.1 percentage points over December, to 58.4%, less than a year earlier (58.5%), when unemployment reached 9 , 7%.
In addition, the net job creation month (36,000) was four times less than expected by analysts, and three times lower than in December.
The private sector, object of attention, appears to have established that 50,000 net jobs.It is his worst since the beginning of the upturn in employment in March, according to new estimates by the ministry.
The survey on employment and those on unemployment are not consistent since it is generally accepted that a minimum of approximately 150,000 net job creation per month is needed to reduce unemployment.
The number of jobs created in January was therefore likely to be revised upwards in a month, tens of thousands of people that the bad weather prevented them from going to work to receive their pay has been is excluded from the calculation of the department.
The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke said Thursday that more than a year and a half after the end of the recession, we still could not consider the economic recovery as "very prepared" because of the slow improving employment.
The country has regained a million jobs over almost 8.7 million officially destroyed from December 2007 to February 2010.
Taking into account, in addition, positions that could not be created because of the crisis, are 11.4 million jobs we need today in the U.S. economy to reduce unemployment to its level before the recession (5.0% in December 2007), calculates Heidi Shirholz, the Economic Policy Institute.
To return to this level in five years, the economy would "create 285,000 jobs a month for 60 months without interruption," she adds, while employment increased by only 93,000 jobs per months on average since March.
